World Cup Dashboard v27

Are these official FIFA probabilities?

No. FIFA is only used for fixtures, scores, kickoff times, venues, and match status. The probability numbers are unofficial dashboard estimates.

How are group standings calculated?

Standings use normal soccer table rules: win = 3 points, draw = 1, loss = 0. Ranking is points, then goal difference, then goals scored, then team name as a simple fallback.

What prediction model does v21 use?

v21 uses one shared Monte Carlo-style group simulation engine. The same model powers qualification percentages, group-winner percentages, knockout slot probabilities, possible matchups, projected winners, and Biggest surprise watch.

This fixes the old issue where different dashboard panels used different shortcut formulas. v24 validates the expected six group pairings and warns instead of inventing missing fixtures.

How does v24 handle bad or incomplete fixture data?

v24 does not invent missing matches. It validates each group against the expected six unique group pairings. If a group is missing a FIFA fixture, the dashboard shows one compact data-quality note and a small badge on affected groups, while holding those projections conservative until the live feed validates. This is closer to a professional data-quality workflow than filling synthetic matches.

Where do the Elo ratings come from?

The dashboard now uses an embedded international Elo prior table instead of hand-made team ratings. Elo is used as the model’s pre-tournament strength prior, while FIFA live results remain the source of truth for actual matches.

The Elo prior is meant to be refreshed from a public international football Elo source when the model needs updating. No team-strength number is based on personal judgment.

How does the Elo blend work?

The model starts with Elo as the dominant input. As teams play more World Cup matches, actual tournament form receives more weight.

How is team quality included?

v27 replaces the old internal team-quality ratings with an Elo prior. The simulation blends that Elo prior with current tournament form so stronger teams are not over-penalized for one draw or one bad match, while teams that perform well still get credit.

The Elo prior is an embedded data table, not a subjective dashboard score. It should be refreshed periodically from a public international football Elo source when you want the model updated.

How are remaining match scores simulated?

Remaining group matches are simulated with a lightweight expected-goals model based on Elo prior plus tournament form: points per game, goal difference per game, goals for, and goals against. The model intentionally shrinks early results so one blowout does not fully dominate the forecast.

How are third-place teams handled?

In each simulation, the dashboard ranks all 12 third-place teams by points, goal difference, and goals scored, then advances the best eight. This is much closer to the World Cup 2026 format than treating every third-place team as automatically qualified.

What weights are used for qualification probability?

The Qualification Tracker now uses the shared simulation engine. The older weighted-score explanation below is kept only as background for how the dashboard estimates team form inside each simulated match.

Component	Weight / rule	Meaning
Points strength	(points / 9) × 0.42	Rewards points already earned. Nine is the maximum group-stage points.
Rank strength	((5 - current rank) / 4) × 0.36	Rewards current table position. First gets the biggest boost, fourth the least.
Goal difference	GD × 0.035, capped from -0.10 to +0.14	Rewards tiebreak strength without letting one blowout dominate.
Goals scored	GF × 0.018, capped at +0.08	Small boost because goals scored can matter as a tiebreaker.
Games left	remaining team matches × 0.045	Gives teams with more matches left room to recover.
Baseline	+0.10	Keeps early-tournament probabilities from collapsing too aggressively.
Position adjustment	Top 2: +0.14; 3rd: +0.04; 4th: -0.16	Reflects that top two are safest and third place can still advance.

The final advance number is capped between 2% and 98% while the group is active. A group is treated as complete only when all six group matches for that group are complete. A team can also show Eliminated earlier if it cannot reach a top-three path on points.

What weights are used for “Win Group” probability?

Component	Weight / rule
Points strength	(points / 9) × 0.42 × 0.75
Rank strength	((5 - rank) / 4) × 0.36 × 0.55
Goal difference	Same capped GD boost as qualification
Goals scored	Same capped GF boost as qualification
Current-position boost	1st: +0.22; 2nd: +0.08; 3rd/4th: -0.05

The final group-winner number is the share of simulations where the team finishes first in its group.

How is “Biggest surprise watch” decided?

This is not a single-game upset tracker. It looks outside a preset list of traditional major teams and picks the remaining team with the highest estimated chance to advance.

The exclusion list currently includes: Brazil, Argentina, France, England, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, United States, and Mexico. So if Scotland, Morocco, Japan, or another lower-profile team has the strongest advance estimate outside that list, they can appear there.

How are knockout matchup probabilities calculated?

Each bracket slot, such as A1 or B2, estimates which teams can land there. The matchup probability multiplies both sides.

How are W79 vs W80-style later-round matchups expanded?

For later rounds, the dashboard recursively looks into the feeder matches, gathers the most likely teams from each path, and lists the top combinations. The list is capped at five combinations so it stays readable on mobile.

How are projected winners estimated?

Projected winners use the higher slot probability plus a small strength adjustment from the current group table. This is only meant as a quick visual estimate.

What does the dashboard not include?

It does not include betting odds, player injuries, lineups, travel/rest differences, Elo ratings, xG, or a true Monte Carlo simulation. It is a lightweight fan dashboard built around current standings and FIFA schedule data.

Why can probabilities change after refresh?

Live refresh imports updated FIFA scores and match statuses. Any new score changes points, goal difference, goals scored, table position, and projected knockout slots.