World Cup Dashboard v19

Are these official FIFA probabilities?

No. FIFA is only used for fixtures, scores, kickoff times, venues, and match status. The probability numbers are unofficial dashboard estimates.

How are group standings calculated?

Standings use normal soccer table rules: win = 3 points, draw = 1, loss = 0. Ranking is points, then goal difference, then goals scored, then team name as a simple fallback.

What weights are used for qualification probability?

The Qualification Tracker uses a weighted score from the current table. It is not a Monte Carlo simulation. It is a quick estimate based on table position and remaining opportunity.

Component	Weight / rule	Meaning
Points strength	(points / 9) × 0.42	Rewards points already earned. Nine is the maximum group-stage points.
Rank strength	((5 - current rank) / 4) × 0.36	Rewards current table position. First gets the biggest boost, fourth the least.
Goal difference	GD × 0.035, capped from -0.10 to +0.14	Rewards tiebreak strength without letting one blowout dominate.
Goals scored	GF × 0.018, capped at +0.08	Small boost because goals scored can matter as a tiebreaker.
Games left	remaining team matches × 0.045	Gives teams with more matches left room to recover.
Baseline	+0.10	Keeps early-tournament probabilities from collapsing too aggressively.
Position adjustment	Top 2: +0.14; 3rd: +0.04; 4th: -0.16	Reflects that top two are safest and third place can still advance.

The final advance number is capped between 2% and 98% while the group is active. Once a group is complete, it becomes deterministic based on final position.

What weights are used for “Win Group” probability?

Component	Weight / rule
Points strength	(points / 9) × 0.42 × 0.75
Rank strength	((5 - rank) / 4) × 0.36 × 0.55
Goal difference	Same capped GD boost as qualification
Goals scored	Same capped GF boost as qualification
Current-position boost	1st: +0.22; 2nd: +0.08; 3rd/4th: -0.05

The final group-winner number is capped between 1% and 92% until the group is complete.

How is “Biggest surprise watch” decided?

This is not a single-game upset tracker. It looks outside a preset list of traditional major teams and picks the remaining team with the highest estimated chance to advance.

The exclusion list currently includes: Brazil, Argentina, France, England, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, United States, and Mexico. So if Scotland, Morocco, Japan, or another lower-profile team has the strongest advance estimate outside that list, they can appear there.

How are knockout matchup probabilities calculated?

Each bracket slot, such as A1 or B2, estimates which teams can land there. The matchup probability multiplies both sides.

How are W79 vs W80-style later-round matchups expanded?

For later rounds, the dashboard recursively looks into the feeder matches, gathers the most likely teams from each path, and lists the top combinations. The list is capped at five combinations so it stays readable on mobile.

How are projected winners estimated?

Projected winners use the higher slot probability plus a small strength adjustment from the current group table. This is only meant as a quick visual estimate.

What does the dashboard not include?

It does not include betting odds, player injuries, lineups, travel/rest differences, Elo ratings, xG, or a true Monte Carlo simulation. It is a lightweight fan dashboard built around current standings and FIFA schedule data.

Why can probabilities change after refresh?

Live refresh imports updated FIFA scores and match statuses. Any new score changes points, goal difference, goals scored, table position, and projected knockout slots.